Proximity sounding analysis for derechos and supercells: an assessment of similarities and differences

Proximity soundings (within 2 h and 167 km) of derechos (long-lived, widespread damaging convective windstorms) and supercells have been obtained. More than 65 derechos, accompanied by 115 proximity soundings, are identified during the years 1983 to 1993. The derechos have been divided into categories according to the synoptic situation: strong forcing (SF), weak forcing (WF), and ‘‘hybrid’’ cases (which are neither weakly nor strongly forced). Nearly 100 supercell proximity soundings have been found for the period 1998 to 2001, subdivided into nontornadic and tornadic supercells; tornadic supercells were further subdivided into those producing significant (>F1 rating) tornadoes and weak tornadoes (F0-F1 rating). WF derecho situations typically are characterized by warm, moist soundings with large convective available potential instability (CAPE) and relatively weak vertical wind shear. SF derechos usually have stronger wind shears, and cooler and less moist soundings with lower CAPE than the weakly forced cases. Most derechos exhibit strong storm-relative inflow at low levels. In WF derechos, this is usually the result of rapid convective system movement, whereas in SF derechos, storm-relative inflow at low levels is heavily influenced by relatively strong low-level windspeeds. ‘‘Hybrid’’ cases collectively are similar to an average of the SF and WF cases. Supercells occur in environments that are not all that dissimilar from those that produce SF derechos. It appears that some parameter combining instability and deep layer shear, such as the Energy–Helicity Index (EHI), can help discriminate between tornadic and nontornadic supercell 0169-8095/03/$ see front matter D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00047-4 * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (C.A. Doswell). C.A. Doswell III, J.S. Evans / Atmospheric Research 67–68 (2003) 117–133 118 situations. Soundings with significant tornadoes (F2 and greater) typically show high 0–1 km relative humidities, and strong 0–1 km shear. Results suggest it may not be easy to forecast the mode of severe thunderstorm activity (i.e., derecho versus supercell) on any particular day, given conditions that favor severe thunderstorm activity in general. It is possible that the convective initiation mechanism is an important factor, with linear initiation favoring derechos, whereas nonlinear forcing might favor supercells. Upperlevel storm-relative flow in supercells tends to be rear-to-front, whereas for derechos, stormrelative flow tends to be front-to-rear through a deep surface-based layer. However, knowing the storm-relative hodograph requires knowledge of storm motion, which can be a challenge to predict. These results generally imply that probabilistic forecasts of convective mode could be a successful strategy. D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.